Athletics Betting 101: what events are the trickiest to predict?

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Athletics might look simple from the outside — the fastest, furthest or highest wins. But when it comes to betting, some events are far more unpredictable than others. Whether it’s a sprinter mistiming their start, a jumper fouling a huge leap, or an outsider suddenly hitting form, athletics can produce shocks in ways that catch bookmakers (and punters) off guard.

That’s part of the fun. It’s also why so many fans are on the lookout for betting sites with welcome bonus offers before major championships, giving themselves some free bets to use on their top picks.

Here are a few events where betting is trickier than you might expect — and where surprises are almost guaranteed.

The Men’s 100m: One False Start Can Change Everything

The years of Usain Bolt’s sprint domination are long gone and we’re now in a generation with a bunch of sprinters capable of winning, making it extremely tricky to predict. Little over a tenth of a second separated the top five in the 2025 World Championship final as Oblique Seville took gold. But Letsile Tebogo, who was strongly tipped for a medal, was disqualified due to a false start.

It was a prime example of the unpredictabe nature of the men’s 100m final. Big names tend to attract the shortest odds, but history shows they’re not always the ones standing on the podium. Betting smart here often means looking beyond the favourite.

The Women’s 800m: Chaos in Two Laps

Middle-distance events are full of drama, but the women’s 800m stands out. Races are often decided by positioning rather than pure speed. A runner boxed in at the bell might have the legs to win but no space to move. Others can benefit from a perfect lane draw or a well-timed surge.

Lilian Odira proved exactly that at the 2025 World Championships with a huge upset in a championships record time as Olympic champion Keely Hodgkinson faltered at the line.

Long Jump & Triple Jump: Risk Meets Reward

In the field, nothing is more unpredictable than the horizontal jumps. One foul can wipe out a huge attempt, leaving favourites chasing consistency rather than distance. On the flip side, an underdog can land a “lifetime best” and suddenly leapfrog the field.

Olympic champion Miltiadis Tentoglou failed to make it to the second round at the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo in a huge upset after suffering a calf injury. Betting markets often underestimate this…