AS WE ALL KNOW, crystal balls are all-too fallible, so we don’t place too much stock in them this long before the NCAA Championships. We’ve only seen a few major clashes so far, and to this point, almost everyone is holding out some of their horses.
The big show will come on November 18 at Virginia’s Panorama Farms course. The Cavaliers will host the Pre-Nationals race on October 14, a critical event that will yield a much better picture of the contenders. The Panorama course is hilly but has produced fast performances in recent years. Running the tangents is crucial, as will be negotiating what might be a crowded start area.
The numbers don’t do justice to how tight the race for the top is between Oklahoma State and defender Northern Arizona. Last year both squads scored 83, and the trophy was decided on the NCAA’s tiebreaker. That meant despite the Cowboys having the faster sixth runner, the win went to Northern Arizona on the basis of more head-to-head wins in the top 5 for each team (3-2). Both teams are loaded, but in September came news that Dave Smith’s Cowboy squad had picked up some very strong foreign talent, which may prove decisive.
1. Oklahoma State
Last year’s runner-up, the Cowboys are once again led by Alex Maier, 5th last year. The graduation loss of Isai Rodriguez (8th) will hurt, as will the departure of Britain’s Rory Leonard (32nd) to the pro ranks but Fouad Messaoudi (12th), Victor Shitsama (31st) and Ryan Schoppe (53rd) are back. A few roster surprises at the Cowboy Jamboree may tilt the scales: Kenyan frosh Denis Kipngetich and Brian Musau ran 1–2. Another big contributor may well be Israeli Adisu Goadie, who ran 28:17.12 in May.
2. Northern Arizona
The defending champions return a powerful top 2 in Nico Young and Drew Bosley, who placed 2nd and 3rd last year. Also back from that ’22 squad are Santiago Gomez-Prosser (19th), Brodey Hasty (25th) and Colin Sahlman. Bosley led the field in the team’s commanding early-season win at Virginia, with 13:29.35 man Theo Quax coming in as No. 2 and Aussie Kang Nyoak and Corey Gorgas also making the Lumberjack top 5. Coach Mike Smith appears to have plenty of top-shelf depth to work with. A big addition is transfer Aaron Las Heras, 26th last year for Wake Forest and with track bests of…
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